Why Is Petr Yan Favored Against Merab Dvalishvili at UFC 333?

One fighter dominated their first meeting. The other came back, turned the tables and reclaimed the championship. Now Petr Yan and Merab Dvalishvili are preparing for a third showdown, with bookmakers backing the man who struggled so badly in their original encounter.

Yan enters their UFC 333 bantamweight title fight as the favourite, despite Dvalishvili's reputation for relentless wrestling and remarkable stamina. But does the champion genuinely deserve his shorter odds, or are bookmakers overlooking what makes the Georgian such a nightmare to face?

Why Is Petr Yan the Favourite to Beat Merab Dvalishvili?

The main reason is Yan's convincing victory at UFC 323, where he found answers to problems that had previously made Dvalishvili almost impossible to contain.

Bookmakers initially priced the Russian at approximately 1.56, implying a 64.3% probability of victory. More recent prices have moved towards 1.59–1.63, suggesting a tighter contest than the opening market indicated.

Yan's favouritism rests on three important factors.

• Improved takedown defence: His ability to resist wrestling pressure transformed their rematch.
• Sharper striking: Cleaner combinations and accurate counters helped him win exchanges.
• Recent head-to-head success: He has already demonstrated how to beat Dvalishvili over five rounds.

Still, being favourite doesn't automatically mean offering good betting value. That's where the odds deserve a closer look.

How Did Their First Two Fights Produce Opposite Results?

Their rivalry offers one of the most fascinating tactical comparisons in the bantamweight division.

In March 2023, Dvalishvili overwhelmed Yan through sheer activity. He attempted an astonishing 49 takedowns, completed 11 and secured a unanimous decision victory.

Yan struggled to establish his preferred boxing rhythm, spending much of the contest reacting to another wrestling attack.

The December 2025 rematch told a completely different story.

This time, Yan defended 27 of Dvalishvili's 29 takedown attempts while landing 139 significant strikes against his opponent's 134. He also scored five takedowns himself, reclaiming the UFC bantamweight championship by unanimous decision.

The biggest difference wasn't simply Yan throwing more punches. He prevented Dvalishvili's wrestling from controlling the entire fight.

With their rivalry tied 1-1, the deciding question is whether that defensive improvement will hold up again.

Could Yan's Back Surgery Change the Betting Picture?

One detail complicates the champion's favouritism.

Following his UFC 323 victory, Yan underwent lower-back surgery in January 2026. The procedure required rehabilitation and kept him away from competitive action for several months.

That absence introduces uncertainty into an otherwise convincing argument for backing him.

Wrestling defence demands explosive movement, balance and considerable physical strength. Against someone who constantly attacks the legs, even a slight reduction in mobility could become significant.

There's no confirmed evidence that Yan will enter UFC 333 physically compromised. Nevertheless, returning from surgery directly into a demanding championship contest makes his preparation particularly relevant.

Dvalishvili also benefits from a different schedule.

Before losing his title, the Georgian fought four times during 2025, including three successful championship defences. His preparation for the trilogy comes after a longer break from that demanding run.

A fresher Dvalishvili could present a tougher challenge than the fighter Yan defeated in December.

Are the UFC 333 Betting Odds Undervaluing Merab?

Dvalishvili's greatest advantage remains his ability to maintain pressure when most opponents begin slowing down.

His wrestling doesn't necessarily require a successful takedown every time. Repeated attempts force defensive reactions, interrupt combinations and make opponents work constantly.

That approach could become increasingly effective in the championship rounds.

Consider the following decimal prices reported for the trilogy.

Illustrative opening and subsequent sportsbook prices. Probabilities include the bookmaker's margin, so each quoted pair exceeds 100% combined. Odds fluctuate.

At 2.55, Merab needs to win approximately 39.2% of the time for a wager to break even.

Our analytical estimate places Yan's winning probability around 58%, leaving Dvalishvili at 42%. These editorial estimates reflect their previous encounters, tactical strengths and physical uncertainties rather than results from a separately trained predictive model.

That suggests Merab offers greater potential moneyline value at longer prices, even though Yan remains our predicted winner.

Which UFC 333 Betting Markets Offer the Best Value?

Rather than focusing exclusively on the winner, the method of victory offers another interesting angle.

Both previous encounters lasted the full 25 minutes. Their durability and contrasting approaches make another judges' decision a reasonable expectation.

Three markets deserve particular attention.

Indicative market prices, subject to change.

Fight to go the distance looks like the most straightforward option, considering their previous meetings. However, odds of 1.34 leave relatively little room for error.

Yan by decision offers a higher potential return. His improved takedown defence and cleaner boxing make another points victory plausible, although the 2.22 price demands confidence in that specific outcome.

Merab by decision is the more adventurous alternative. At 2.85, it becomes interesting if his wrestling volume and relentless pace regain control, particularly in the later rounds.

The important distinction is between probability and value. A likely outcome isn't necessarily worth backing when the bookmaker's price already reflects that expectation.

UFC 333 Prediction: Can Petr Yan Defend His Championship?

Our prediction favours Petr Yan by unanimous decision, although the contest looks considerably closer than their previous result might suggest.

Yan's precise boxing, improved defensive wrestling and ability to counter Dvalishvili's forward movement provide a credible route to retaining his title.

Yet Merab remains dangerous throughout all five rounds, particularly if he forces the champion into prolonged defensive exchanges.

Our estimated probabilities are:

Independent editorial estimates, not guaranteed outcomes or live market probabilities.

The champion deserves favouritism, but odds of 1.56 look rather short. Yan at around 1.67 offers a more appealing entry point, while Dvalishvili becomes interesting at 2.55 or higher.

Although another decision remains our preferred outcome, the quoted 1.34 distance price implies a higher probability than our own 70% estimate, limiting its betting appeal.

Ultimately, UFC 333 could come down to one familiar battle: Yan's precision against Merab's relentless pressure. The winner is far from certain, but another five-round contest looks the most convincing expectation.